The Avocado Shortage of 2019
(written for Yucatan Guacamole - 2019)
The rise of avocados has created a demand that is hard to meet. Especially when there is a shortage to begin with. Here’s a rundown on 2019’s avocado market and how things are finally recovering.
Mexican avocados are produced seasonally and make up 90% of the avocados consumed in the US – so what happens during the off season? Where do the avocados come from? That’s where California steps in. Hass avocados were first grown in Southern California because the climate is perfect for the “green gold” to thrive. However, the heatwave in the summer of 2018 had an effect on the 2019 crop. Despite the heavy rains in Southern California during the winter/spring, the 2019 summer harvest yielded 175 million pounds of avocados, only a little more than half of 2018’s crop of 337.8 million pounds.
While that still sounds like a lot of avocados, it created a huge shortage in the US market! This caused prices to skyrocket as high as $2.10 per avocado in July during the worst of the shortage. Some small shops and taco stands were forced to either scrap the option of guacamole all together or find more sustainable ways of making it. Some turned to Mexican squashes known as calabasitas to make what consumers began calling “mock-amole”, a guacamole alternative with a similar taste and texture, just without avocados.
Chipotle may have made the most dramatic change to cope with avocado prices – rather than the usual Mexican or Californian avocados, Chipotle began shipping in avocados from Peru… and customers were not happy. Chipotle fans took to twitter to express their disappointment in the change, posting photos of brown, stringy guac with pieces of avocado seed and peel here and there. Apparently, some of the avocados were rock hard and impossible for employees to cut open, even with freshly sharpened knives!
So what’s going to happen?? Luckily as the Mexican harvest has begun again, avocado prices are finally dropping. Hass avocados are back down to $1.17 each, a much more normal and reasonable price. The harvest season is its strongest between November and April, so with prices already dropping in September and no summer heat wave, the market for avocados is looking to be secure for the next year.